Grubbs and its “sure course” analysis isn’t the only way to prove an anticipatory warrant. Probable cause and nexus are also enough. Taylor v. Commonwealth, 2016 Va. App. LEXIS 238 (Sept. 13, 2016):
We conclude that Grubbs does not require a package to be on a “sure course” to the premises to be searched as a condition precedent to the issuance of an anticipatory search warrant. Rather, Grubbs only requires anticipatory search warrants to be supported by probable cause. Specifically, Grubbs requires anticipatory warrants to be supported by probable cause establishing: (1) that the triggering condition of the warrant is likely to occur, and (2) that contraband or evidence of crime will likely be found on or in the premises to be searched upon the occurrence of the triggering condition. See Grubbs, 547 U.S. at 96-97.
While the “sure course” analysis outlined in McNeill may be sufficient to establish probable cause regarding the two conditions set forth in Grubbs, we conclude that it is merely one way of establishing a constitutionally sufficient nexus between a package and the premises to be searched. In certain circumstances, a sufficient nexus between a package containing contraband and a specified location may be established even when the package is not on a “sure course” to that destination. Having set forth these principles, we turn to the facts of the present case to determine whether the warrant at issue was supported by sufficient probable cause.